MCOL and Predictive Modeling News have released results from their jointly sponsored stakeholder eighth annual e-poll on Prioritizing Predictive Modeling Activities. A new healthsprocket list has been posted which lists the average priority rank for the surveyed items.
 
The survey put the question like this: Suppose you had to prioritize how an organization could spend its funds on predictive modeling initiatives involving health benefits, and you were given a list of 10 items to prioritize. How would you rank them? (1= highest priority / 10 = lowest priority; rank them 1 through 10)
 
The items to rank were as follows, with their abbreviated version, referred to subsequently, indicated in parentheses: 

  • Identification of High-Risk Patients for Care Management (Identify)
  • Plan Design Development (Design)
  • Fraud Prevention (Fraud)
  • Treatment Guideline Development (Guideline)
  • Provider Profiling for Network Development (Profiling)
  • Provider Payment Rate and Restructuring (Payment)
  • Premium Rate Development (Premium)
  • Medicare / Medicaid Population Financial Modeling (Medicare)
  • Target Marketing Based on Customer / Prospect Risk Scores (Marketing)
  • Readmission Prediction Initiatives (Readmissions)
  • Other

 
For the eighth year in a row a majority of respondents, 54.8%, ranked identification of high-risk patients for care management as the highest priority for how an organization could spend its funds on predictive modeling initiatives. No other item had a significant number of respondents ranking it as the number one priority. 
 
‘Readmissions’ was ranked as the number one priority by 11.9% of respondents, ‘Guideline’ by 9.5% of respondents, and ‘Fraud’ and  ‘Other’ each by 7.1% of respondents. All other items were ranked as the number one priority by less than 5% of respondents.
 
Here's a comparison the average priority rank for items in 2015 vs. 2008. Remember - the lower the average rank score - the higher the priority (1 = highest / 10 = lowest):
 

  • Identify: 2015 - 2.1 | 2008 - 2.5
  • Design: 2015 - 4.9 | 2008 - 4.3
  • Fraud: 2015 - 5.5 | 2008 - N/A
  • Guideline: 2015 - 5.5 | 2008 - 4.8
  • Profiling: 2015 - 5.5 | 2008 - 5.2
  • Payment: 2015 - 6.3 | 2008 - 5.4
  • Premium: 2015 - 7.0 | 2008 - 5.6
  • Medicare: 2015 - 6.1 | 2008 - 5.7
  • Marketing: 2015 - 6.1 | 2008 - 5.8
  • Readmission: 2015 - 5.4 | 2008 - N/A
  • Formulary: 2015 - N/A | 2008 - 6.4
  • Other: 2015 - 5.2 | 2008 - 9.5