Jun
26
Prioritizing Predictive Modeling Activities
Fri, 06/26/2015 - 16:49
MCOL and Predictive Modeling News have released results from their jointly sponsored stakeholder eighth annual e-poll on Prioritizing Predictive Modeling Activities. A new healthsprocket list has been posted which lists the average priority rank for the surveyed items.
The survey put the question like this: Suppose you had to prioritize how an organization could spend its funds on predictive modeling initiatives involving health benefits, and you were given a list of 10 items to prioritize. How would you rank them? (1= highest priority / 10 = lowest priority; rank them 1 through 10)
The items to rank were as follows, with their abbreviated version, referred to subsequently, indicated in parentheses:
- Identification of High-Risk Patients for Care Management (Identify)
- Plan Design Development (Design)
- Fraud Prevention (Fraud)
- Treatment Guideline Development (Guideline)
- Provider Profiling for Network Development (Profiling)
- Provider Payment Rate and Restructuring (Payment)
- Premium Rate Development (Premium)
- Medicare / Medicaid Population Financial Modeling (Medicare)
- Target Marketing Based on Customer / Prospect Risk Scores (Marketing)
- Readmission Prediction Initiatives (Readmissions)
- Other
For the eighth year in a row a majority of respondents, 54.8%, ranked identification of high-risk patients for care management as the highest priority for how an organization could spend its funds on predictive modeling initiatives. No other item had a significant number of respondents ranking it as the number one priority.
‘Readmissions’ was ranked as the number one priority by 11.9% of respondents, ‘Guideline’ by 9.5% of respondents, and ‘Fraud’ and ‘Other’ each by 7.1% of respondents. All other items were ranked as the number one priority by less than 5% of respondents.
Here's a comparison the average priority rank for items in 2015 vs. 2008. Remember - the lower the average rank score - the higher the priority (1 = highest / 10 = lowest):
- Identify: 2015 - 2.1 | 2008 - 2.5
- Design: 2015 - 4.9 | 2008 - 4.3
- Fraud: 2015 - 5.5 | 2008 - N/A
- Guideline: 2015 - 5.5 | 2008 - 4.8
- Profiling: 2015 - 5.5 | 2008 - 5.2
- Payment: 2015 - 6.3 | 2008 - 5.4
- Premium: 2015 - 7.0 | 2008 - 5.6
- Medicare: 2015 - 6.1 | 2008 - 5.7
- Marketing: 2015 - 6.1 | 2008 - 5.8
- Readmission: 2015 - 5.4 | 2008 - N/A
- Formulary: 2015 - N/A | 2008 - 6.4
- Other: 2015 - 5.2 | 2008 - 9.5
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