L.E.K. Consulting: MA County-Level Projection Model, 5 Takeaways

1. Medicare Advantage’s march forward will continue apace until its penetration rate hits 70%. rising from roughly 20 million, or 35% penetration
2. Medicare Advantage’s march forward will continue to 38 million, or 50% penetration, by the end of 2025.
3. Medicare Advantage’s march forward will continue apace until its penetration rate hits 70%.
4. We expect Medicare Advantage to continue its slow but steady growth, reaching 60% to 70% penetration sometime between 2030 and 2040.
5. Much of the penetration will come from Original Medicare, which could decrease more than 20 points, from 40% to 10%-20% penetration

Source: L.E.K. Consulting
Source URL: https://www.lek.com/sites/default/files/1969_Medicare_Advant...

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